Every week, Tennis Analytics dives deep into the data, bringing you a stat of the week to help you understand tennis better and become a little smarter.
July is return month!
Every Wednesday this month, we’ll be releasing new data on the return of serve.
Stat of the Week: 16%
NCAA women miss 16% of returns against a 1st serve from the ad court.
The majority of those misses are backhands. However, unlike the deuce court which we looked at last week, they miss forehand returns at a higher rate.
So we might say, on the women’s side, a first serve up the T is more likely to be an error than a wide serve.
Here’s the return data for NCAA women during the 2019-2020 season.
| 1st Serve Returns Ad Court | % of Total | Rate |
| BH Error | 8% | 15% |
| FH Error | 8% | 17% |
| BH Winner | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| FH Winner | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| BH Made | 46% | 84% |
| FH Made | 37% | 81% |
Note: The rate is calculated by dividing by the total number of forehand or backhand returns. For example, if you hit 3 forehand winners out of 100 forehand returns, your FH winner rate is 3%.
The men miss 22% of returns on the ad side against 1st serves.
For both men and women, slightly more errors occur on the deuce side.
One difference between the men and women, is their error rate. While the women seem to miss more serves down the T, men are missing forehands at a higher percentage regardless of the side.
They do hit more winners off the forehand side, so perhaps they’re going for a little more risk.
Here is the data for NCAA men 2019-20.
| 1st Serve Returns Ad Court | % of Total | Rate |
| BH Error | 12% | 21% |
| FH Error | 10% | 24% |
| BH Winner | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| FH Winner | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| BH Made | 45% | 78% |
| FH Made | 32% | 75% |
Note: The rate is calculated by dividing by the total number of forehand or backhand returns. For example, if you hit 3 forehand winners out of 100 forehand returns, your FH winner rate is 3%.
Point of the Week
Many coaches say the return is the least practiced shot in tennis.
Because the server has the advantage, the goal of the returner on 1st serves should be to get the point to neutral. Do this by returning deep down the middle of the court.
Photo of the Week
Rafael Nadal’s backhand swing path.
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