Do B12 match winners hit more winners, or make fewer errors?

Every week, Tennis Analytics dives deep into the data, bringing you a stat of the week to help you understand tennis better and become a little smarter.

As you would expect, match winners hit more winners AND make fewer errors than their opponents. The combination of the 2, better known as the differential, is very powerful. If you hit one more winner than me, and make 1 fewer error, the differential is 2 in your favor. Errors rule the show though, by 3 times.

At the Jr, Orange Bowl B12 division over the last few years, the winners and errors ratios are pretty stable. We considered over 18,000 points played in this division:

🎾 25% of all points end in Winners. The victor hits 3 of every 5, meaning 50% more than the opponent.
🎾 75% of all points end in an Error by one of the players. The match loser hits 3 of every 5.
This translates into 50% more errors by the Loser.
🎾 Overall, there are 3x as many Errors as Winners

At all levels of our sport, most rallies end within 4 strokes. Logically then, most winners and errors occur in this segment. In the 1st 2 shots (Serve and Return), errors outnumber winners by over 6 to 1 (Errors 18%, WInners 3%). For the next 2 shots (Serve+1, Return+1) Errors outnumber Winners by 3:1 (19% and 6% respectively). Reducing errors on your 1st 2 touches (Serve & Serve+1, and/or Return & Return+1) should be a focal point of training sessions.

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