Do servers double fault more on break points than game points?

Every week, Tennis Analytics dives deep into the data, bringing you a stat of the week to help you understand tennis better and become a little smarter.

Do servers double fault more when facing a break point than when they hold a game point? How about aces on break points vs game points?

We looked at 21,140 serve points from last year’s US Open Men division and here are the numbers:

Game Points accounted for 20% of all serve points, while Break Points accounted for 9%.

On Game Point, the confidence boost to the server is undeniable. There are 4.5x as many Aces on Game Point as there are on Break Point. You would think that the converse on double faults – more DF’s on Break Point than on Game Point But this is not the case. On Game Point, the server made 2.5x as many double faults (23%) than they did on Break Points (9%).

*Pressure Points – All points where the server is one point away from facing a Break Point.*

The serve is clearly the most dominant stroke in the game – the better server typically wins the match. Good serving forces poor returning. And vice versa.

WIth a Game Point in hand the world’s top servers play aggressively – hitting both more aces and more double faults than on Break Points. Aces outshine DF’s by more than double. But when facing a break point, the numbers indicate a far more conservative approach. Aces barely outweigh double faults.

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