Every week, Tennis Analytics dives deep into the data, bringing you a stat of the week to help you understand tennis better and become a little smarter.
July is return month!
Every Wednesday this month, we’ll be releasing new data on the return of serve.
Stat of the Week: 23%
When returning the first serve from the deuce court, NCAA Men make an error 23% of the time.
That’s nearly 1 out of 4 first serves that don’t come back.
The error rate on the forehand side is slightly higher. Players hit and miss more forehand returns from the deuce side.
Below is the data for NCAA Men in 2019-20.
| 1st Serve Returns Deuce Court | % of Total | Rate |
| BH Error | 11% | 23% |
| FH Error | 12% | 24% |
| BH Winner | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| FH Winner | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| BH Made | 38% | 77% |
| FH Made | 38% | 75% |
Note: The rate is calculated by dividing by the total number of forehand or backhand returns. For example, if you hit 3 forehand winners out of 100 forehand returns, your FH winner rate is 3%.
The error rate for the women is only 18%.
They also hit significantly more forehand returns from the deuce court on first serves.
Unlike the men, the error rate is lower on the forehand side for the ladies.
Here is the data for the NCAA Women during 2019-20.
| 1st Serve Returns Deuce Court | % of Total | Error Rate |
| BH Error | 7% | 18% |
| FH Error | 10% | 17% |
| BH Winner | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| FH Winner | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| BH Made | 34% | 82% |
| FH Made | 47% | 81% |
Note: The rate is calculated by dividing by the total number of forehand or backhand returns. For example, if you hit 3 forehand winners out of 100 forehand returns, your FH winner rate is 3%.
Point of the Week
As a player or coach, you can’t necessarily do much with these stats. However, they are great baseline numbers to benchmark against.
Here’s how you can do that:
- Purchase one of our player packages. We recommend at least 5 matches to get a relevant sample size.
- Review your return stats against the numbers above.
- If you notice your forehand error rate is 30%, for example, you know it’s something to work on in practice.
Photo of the Week
Stefanos Tsitsipas hits a forehand approach shot.
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