Stat of the Week | March 3, 2021

Every week, Tennis Analytics dives deep into the data, bringing you a stat of the week to help you understand tennis better and become a little smarter.

We’re closing out our Australian Open analysis with a look at the women’s champion, Naomi Osaka.

Stat of the Week: 57%

From the quarterfinals on, Naomi Osaka won 57% of all points played, 14% more than her opponents.

Against Serena, she won 56%.

There are only 2 ways to win a point.

1. You hit a winner.
2. Your opponent makes an error.

For every two winners hit by her opponent, Naomi hit three. That’s 50% more winners!

Then, she widened the gap further by making almost 25% fewer errors than her opponents. A double whammy!

While Naomi’s 1st serve percentage was lower than normal at 47%, she more than made up for this by winning 83% of those points. Her opponents may have had a better 1st serve percentage, but they won fewer points.

Let’s look at the math.

• Osaka: Served 174 points. Made 47% of 1st serves (82) | Won 83% of those (68)
• Opponents: Served 167 points. Made 54% of 1st serves (90) | Won 63% of those (57)

At this rate, Osaka wins 39 points on first serve for every 100 points played while her opponents win 34 points for every 100. That’s a BIG difference!

So what was Naomi’s first serve strategy?

She had a clear primary pattern of targeting the T, looking to negate angles for the returner.

Point of the Week

Sometimes you need to take a closer look at the stats in order to understand exactly what they mean.

Naomi’s 1st serve percentage is a great example. 47% is a low number by itself, and looks poor. However, winning 83% of those points paints a different picture.

It turns out, the numbers are really good.

Many players make the mistake of attaining a very high 1st serve percentage and then end up getting broken. It may be better to serve a bit more aggressively at a lower percentage to win more points.

What are your serve numbers?

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Photo of the Week

Naomi Osaka’s forehand return with key positions.